When it comes to sports card investments, few players have sparked as much debate as Justin Herbert, the young quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers. As a relatively new player in the NFL, Herbert’s cards have surged in popularity over the past few years. But with the rise of his card prices, the natural question arises: Are Justin Herbert cards a good investment?
In this article, I’ll walk you through the various factors that impact the investment potential of Herbert’s cards, including his career trajectory, the broader NFL card market, and comparisons to other quarterbacks in his class. I will also break down how to approach these cards from an investment perspective, examining the risks and rewards involved.
Table of Contents
Why Justin Herbert’s Cards Are Considered Investment Opportunities
First, let’s look at why Herbert’s cards have become attractive to investors in the first place. As of this writing, Herbert is widely regarded as one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league. His remarkable rookie season in 2020, where he set multiple records for a first-year QB, helped elevate his profile in the sports card market. Herbert’s playstyle, poised demeanor, and ability to deliver in clutch situations have earned him a loyal fan base.
The appeal for investors lies in the potential for long-term success. A quarterback’s career arc can lead to sustained card value increases, especially if that player achieves success on the field in the form of championships, MVPs, and other honors. For a player like Herbert, these milestones could elevate his card prices further.
Examining Justin Herbert’s Card Prices
Before diving deeper into whether investing in Herbert’s cards is a good decision, let’s take a look at the current state of the market. Below is a table comparing prices for some of the most popular Justin Herbert cards based on recent auction results:
| Card Type | Price Range (as of Jan 2025) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 Panini Prizm Silver | $1,200 – $2,500 | A highly sought-after base card in Herbert’s rookie year. |
| 2020 National Treasures RPA | $10,000 – $20,000 | A premium card featuring an autographed patch. |
| 2020 Select Field Level | $500 – $1,000 | A rare parallel with a low print run, considered high-value. |
| 2020 Optic Hollow | $200 – $600 | A glossy version of his rookie card, known for its sharp look. |
| 2020 Panini Mosaic Genesis | $300 – $800 | Rare insert card with unique patterns and designs. |
As you can see, the price range for Justin Herbert’s cards varies significantly depending on the type, rarity, and condition of the card. The cards that come from high-end sets like National Treasures have a much higher price tag, reflecting the limited nature and appeal to high-end collectors.
One key factor to consider in sports card investments is the potential for these prices to fluctuate. In general, cards from highly publicized seasons or games tend to increase in value, especially if the player’s performance consistently improves.
Comparing Justin Herbert to Other Quarterbacks
To better understand whether Herbert’s cards are a good investment, it’s helpful to compare his current market performance to other quarterbacks in his class, as well as established NFL stars. Let’s compare Herbert to other QBs who entered the league in 2020, such as Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, and to older quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.
| Quarterback | 2020 Rookie Card Price Range | 2024 Performance | Card Investment Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | $200 – $20,000 | High potential; improving stats | Strong potential if sustained success |
| Joe Burrow | $250 – $30,000 | Elite status, nearing top-tier QB | Strong, but more expensive and more volatile |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $100 – $5,000 | Unpredictable, injury concerns | Moderate, but likely to increase with success |
| Patrick Mahomes | $500 – $50,000+ | Proven top-tier QB, Super Bowl champ | Already peaked, but still holds value |
| Tom Brady | $1,000 – $3,000,000+ | Greatest QB of all time | Peak value, unlikely to grow much further |
From this table, you can see that Justin Herbert’s card market is quite competitive. While his cards might not be as expensive as Mahomes or Brady, his price range is generally lower than Burrow’s and is influenced by several factors, such as his team’s performance, individual stats, and career trajectory.
Performance Analysis: How Herbert’s Play Affects Card Values
One of the main factors driving card prices is on-field performance. If Herbert continues to improve his stats and leads the Chargers to playoff appearances or even a Super Bowl victory, the value of his cards will likely increase. In contrast, if his performance declines or he faces a series of injuries, his cards could lose value.
To illustrate the potential changes in value based on performance, let’s look at two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Herbert Becomes a Super Bowl Champion
Let’s assume Herbert leads the Chargers to a Super Bowl win in the next few years, winning an MVP in the process. This would drastically increase the demand for his cards. In this case, we could expect the following:
| Card Type | Pre-Super Bowl Price | Post-Super Bowl Price | Price Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Panini Prizm Silver | $2,000 | $5,000 | 150% |
| 2020 National Treasures RPA | $15,000 | $40,000 | 166% |
| 2020 Optic Hollow | $500 | $1,500 | 200% |
In this scenario, the cards would likely see a massive increase in price. The excitement surrounding a Super Bowl win, combined with Herbert’s growing popularity, would generate a surge in demand, causing prices to rise across the board.
Scenario 2: Herbert’s Performance Declines
On the other hand, let’s say Herbert faces a couple of subpar seasons or a major injury. This could lead to a decrease in the demand for his cards. Here’s how the market could respond:
| Card Type | Pre-Decline Price | Post-Decline Price | Price Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Panini Prizm Silver | $2,000 | $1,200 | 40% |
| 2020 National Treasures RPA | $15,000 | $7,000 | 53% |
| 2020 Optic Hollow | $500 | $300 | 40% |
A decline in Herbert’s performance could cause a dip in prices, with the drop being more pronounced for high-end cards like National Treasures. This would highlight the risks involved in investing in a young quarterback whose success is not guaranteed.
What to Look for When Investing in Herbert’s Cards
When considering investing in Herbert’s cards, here are some key factors to take into account:
- Condition and Grading: Cards that are graded highly by companies like PSA or BGS tend to retain and increase in value more than ungraded cards. A PSA 10, for example, will likely fetch a higher price than an ungraded card in similar condition.
- Rarity: Cards from limited print runs or special editions are usually more valuable. Herbert’s autographed rookie cards or low-numbered parallels could provide a significant return on investment.
- Team Success: As the Chargers perform better, especially in high-profile games, the demand for Herbert’s cards could increase.
- Market Trends: Keep an eye on the general trends in the sports card market. For example, a broader increase in NFL card demand could also benefit Herbert’s cards.
Final Thoughts
So, are Justin Herbert cards a good investment? The answer depends largely on your risk tolerance and long-term outlook. If you believe in Herbert’s future and are willing to hold onto cards for several years, then yes—his cards could be a great investment, especially if he continues to improve and lead his team to success. However, as with any investment, there’s a risk that Herbert’s cards may not appreciate as expected, particularly if he faces setbacks.
Given his potential and the current prices, Herbert’s cards are a solid choice for those willing to take a moderate to high-risk approach in the sports card market. Whether you choose to invest in a few key cards or build a broader collection, understanding the factors that drive value will help you make an informed decision.
Ultimately, like any investment, it’s important to do your research, stay informed, and remain patient as you track Herbert’s career progression and the ebb and flow of the card market.
